Grand Slam Professional Tennis Predictions and Picks by Nick Bollettieri. US Open, French Open, Wimbledon, Australian Open

Once again, Nick’s Picks along with Tennis Week will bring you in-depth coverage of the Australian Open. We continue today with the breakdown of the draw. Check back everyday for insight leading up to the Open and then throughout.

Men’s Draw

Can Ivo Karlovic make some noise down under?

Let’s start by taking a look at the top half of the draw. The big guns are Nadal, Murray, and Tsonga, but you’ve also got a very good group with players such as Simon, Blake, Verdasco, Stepanek, Karlovic, Monfils, and Gasquet. Any one of the guys has the capability of making a deep run in this tournament. The tough part about the top half of the draw is that it also contains an excellent crop of unseeded players like veterans Tommy Haas, Lleyton Hewitt, Guillermo Canas, Nicolas Kiefer, Mikhail Youzhny, Mario Ancic, and Arnaud Clement, as well as top up-and-comers Kei Nishikori and Ernests Gulbis. Basically, the top half of the draw is loaded with talent.

Interesting first round match-ups on the top half:

• The first match that stands out to me on the top half pits hometown favorite Lleyton Hewitt against perennial top-tenner Fernando Gonzalez. Neither player is playing the way they were a couple of years ago, but this has should be good nonetheless. Gonzalez is 3-2 against Hewitt all-time, and beat him at this tournament back in 2007.
• Another one with intrigue will be between Nicolas Kiefer and Guillermo Canas. These two vets are 1-1 against each other, and both have faired well down here in the past. Kiefer is a former semifinalist, and Canas has been to the fourth round a couple of times.
• The last one that stands out to me features the runner-up from 2008, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, taking on Juan Monaco. Tsonga needs to recapture that magic he had last year if he wants to show everyone that he deserves to be seeded fifth, while Monaco has been ranked as high as #14 in the world (just last year). Neither guy has played each other before, but Monaco is certainly capable of winning this match.

“What-if’s”:

• Nadal’s first big test could come in the third round against a player like Tommy Haas or Dmitry Tursunov. Haas has to get by a tough opponent in the opening round in Eduardo Schwank and then would have to beat Tursunov, but if he is playing at his level he can do both. Nadal is 3-0 against Haas, with all of those wins coming on hard courts.
• Everyone wants to know what Andy Murray is going to do down under, and like Nadal his first real challenge could come in the third round. Murray could face 19-year old Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori, if Kei can pull of an upset of Jurgen Melzer in the opener and then win his second round. That would be the first match between the two, but I have a feeling it won’t be the last for these young men.
• The highest seeded American on the top half, James Blake, could face Tsonga in the fourth round. That would really be an exciting match to watch, and Tsonga is 1-0 against Blake in his career.
• Let’s say the seeds hold out and we get Tsonga vs. Murray and Nadal vs. Simon in the quarterfinals. Both would be excellent matches, and I know most people would be hoping to see a Murray vs. Nadal semi. That could be one of the matches of the tournament.

Ok, let’s move on to the bottom half of the men’s draw. I don’t think it is quite as strong as the top half with the same amount of talent from top to bottom, but it isn’t easy either. First off, you’ve got Federer and Djokovic along with other contenders such as Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro. Below them there is a good group of guys like Nalbandian, Robredo, Mathieu, Ferrer, and Wawrinka. What you don’t have is the depth of outstanding veterans that you have on the top, but there are some good young players like Marin Cilic, Philipp Kohlschreiber, John Isner, and Sam Querrey. The focus though will be on a possible rematch of last year’s semi when Djokovic ended Federer’s incredible run.

Interesting first round match-ups on the bottom half:

• How about a match between two talented young guys in Querrey and Kohlschreiber? Both play big, and in their one previous meeting Querrey won in straight sets. Could he pull off the “upset” in the first round?
• I can’t not talk about Taylor Dent. He will play a qualifier in the opening round and is playing in his first Grand Slam since the 2006 Australian Open because of a back injury. Dent has been training at the Academy and is one of the nicest guys you will ever meet. I hope he can find his groove and make a little noise.
• Another American that could pull off an upset is Robby Ginepri. He faces Tomas Berdych and could definitely send the talented Czech star home early.

“What-if’s”:

• Well, the first one that pops out to me would be between Federer and the 2005 champion, Marat Safin. They could meet in the third round and anytime these two play, I know I am watching. Federer is 9-2 against Safin, but one of those two losses came right here in Australia in the semis in 2005.
• Assuming Federer gets past that match he could face another challenge in the fourth round in fellow countrymen, Stan Wawrinka. If he gets by that it could be either Del Potro or Cilic in the quarters. That would be three tough matches in a row for Federer and we will have a really good idea of what state of mind he is in after witnessing those battles.
• I’ve got to mention both Djokovic and Roddick as well. This is the first Grand Slam where Djokovic is the defending champion, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to that. Roddick comes in with a new coach, Larry Stefanki, and looks primed for a deep run. The two could meet in the quarters and that would be a clash of the titans (and don’t forget about the 2008 US Open where Djokovic beat Roddick and then gave quite a speech afterwards).
• If the seeds hold true, then we will get to see a Djokovic/Federer rematch from last year. There is no doubt that Federer will be more determined than ever to win that match.

Women’s Draw

Well, let’s begin with the top half. You know that is where Jelena Jankovic is going to be and she is joined by her fellow countrywoman, Ana Ivanovic. Also on top are Dinara Safina, Vera Zvonareva, and talented youngsters like Caroline Wozniacki and Alize Cornet. What’s missing on the top half is one of the Williams sisters. Unfortunately for us, not so unfortunate for the other women, is that they are both on the bottom half. That means that we are not going to have an all-Williams sisters final like the classic we saw at Wimbledon.

Also on the bottom half are the Russian tandem of Dementieva and Kuznetsova, as well as Aggie Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka. All four of these girls have to be considered serious contenders to play well into the second week.

Interesting first round match-ups:

• The match that stood out to me right away pits Wozniacki versus former top-15 player Shahar Peer. The 21-year old Israeli Peer, now ranked 40 in the world, fights extremely hard and this will not be an easy match for Wozniacki.
• I’ll also being keeping a close eye on one of my students, Sabine Lisicki, as she plays 30^th-seeded Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada. The two have played twice before, with each player winning once. Lisicki made it to the third round here last year, and is ready to have a big year in 2009.
• One player that better be prepared for a possible upset is Daniela Hantuchova. She has been injured recently and is facing Australian native, Casey Dellacqua. Dellacqua made a great run to the fourth round here last year, with the help of the fans, and is always dangerous.

“What-if’s”:

• Last year’s finalist, Ana Ivanovic, is looking to bounce back into form and nothing would be sweeter for her then to get back to the finals. A big test could come in the fourth round against Wozniacki. Ivanovic is 2-0 against Wozniacki, and one of those wins came in the fourth round of last year’s Aussie Open. This would be a great rematch!
• Continuing with Ivanovic, she could have another rematch on her hands in the quarterfinals against Dinara Safina. Those two met in the finals of the French Open last year, and Ivanovic is 3-1 against her.
• The winner of the Ivanovic/Safina match could get a crack at the world’s #1 player, Jelena Jankovic in the semis. Jankovic is aiming to win her first career Grand Slam tournament, and now would be a great time for her to break through.
• Everyone will be looking forward to a possible Venus vs. Serena semifinal, but both girls need to get through their other matches. Serena has got Azarenka, Radwanska, and Kuznetsova on her side while Venus has Dementieva, Schnyder, and Pennetta. Neither girl has an easy road, but they won’t be considered underdogs in any match they play.

Overall, the women’s draw is pretty evenly balanced. It would be interesting if the semis were Jankovic/Ivanovic and Williams/Williams, with a possible rematch of the 2008 US Open final down under!

~ by Nick's Picks on January 15, 2009.

Posted in 2009 Australian Open, Australian Open News, Australian Open Picks
Tags: 2009 Australian Open, Aggie Radwanska, Alize Cornet, Ana Ivanovic, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Caroline W, Caroline Wozniacki, Daniela Hantuchova, Dinara Safina, Elena Dementieva, Fernando Gonzalez, Gilles Simon, Guillermo Canas, Jelena Jankovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Monaco, Kei Nishikori, Lleyton Hewitt, Marin Cilic, Nicolas Kiefer, Novak Djokovic, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Rafael Nadal, Robby Ginepri, Roger Federer, Sabine Lisicki, Sam Querrey, Serena Williams, Stanislas Wawrinka, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Taylor Dent, Tomas Berdych, Tommy Haas, Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka